Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $807 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$807.16
$3.94
99.4¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
172h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.6¢ | $386.18 | $387.23 | +$1.05 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.2¢ | $161.64 | $162.84 | +$1.19 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $81.71 | $81.71 | +$0 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $50.06 | $50.42 | +$0.36 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $37.78 | $37.96 | +$0.19 | — 0-13 (13) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $35.9 | $36.71 | +$0.81 | 86% 62-10 (72) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.68 | $29.97 | +$0.29 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $20.02 | $20.08 | +$0.06 | — 6-8 (14) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.24 | $0.24 | -$0 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$386.18
Value
$387.23
PnL
+$1.05
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Invested
$161.64
Value
$162.84
PnL
+$1.19
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$81.71
Value
$81.71
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
balthazar<$100Invested
$50.06
Value
$50.42
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Invested
$37.78
Value
$37.96
PnL
+$0.19
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$35.9
Value
$36.71
PnL
+$0.81
Record
86%
62-10 (72)
Invested
$29.68
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.29
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$20.02
Value
$20.08
PnL
+$0.06
Record
—
6-8 (14)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$0
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.