Will Alex Cora win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $215 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$214.68
-$0.65
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-43 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $214.94 | $214.62 | -$0.11 | 45% 2389-2955 (5344) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $12 | $0.02 | -$0.55 | 53% 3949-3504 (7453) |
BL BlaorraCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 8% 115-1415 (1530) |
AV AvvnnnnCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 8% 136-1653 (1789) |
HY HypurrrrrrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 9% 80-768 (848) |
IT ItlliccaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 8% 65-760 (825) |
Invested
$214.94
Value
$214.62
PnL
-$0.11
Record
45%
2389-2955 (5344)
Invested
$12
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
3949-3504 (7453)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
115-1415 (1530)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
136-1653 (1789)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
9%
80-768 (848)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
65-760 (825)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.