Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $451 held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$450.55
-$0.19
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
199h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $273 | $272.86 | -$0.14 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $91.07 | $91.04 | -$0.02 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $56.67 | $56.64 | -$0.03 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.96 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
Invested
$273
Value
$272.86
PnL
-$0.14
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$91.07
Value
$91.04
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$56.67
Value
$56.64
PnL
-$0.03
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
Invested
$29.96
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.