Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will A.J. Ewing win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $413 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$412.67

Combined PnL

$204.62

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$412.67

Total Shares2,935

Combined PnL+$204.62

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.64	$188.83	+$187.19	72% 13834-5358 (19192)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$12.47	$54.36	-$6.28	31% 3256-7119 (10375)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.95	$35.23	+$33.28	42% 837-1172 (2009)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$22.61	$22.61	-$3.32	37% 4033-6775 (10808)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$20.87	-$3.07	30% 489-1160 (1649)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.76	$17.77	-$2.61	38% 7155-11768 (18923)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.11	$14.45	-$1.06	39% 2901-4499 (7400)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.21	$14.29	-$2.1	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.32	$10.11	-$1.49	34% 3324-6350 (9674)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.47	$8.97	-$0.44	40% 256-391 (647)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$7.23	-$1.06	17% 1328-6547 (7875)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$4.39	+$4.37	23% 1791-6025 (7816)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$3.89	+$3.83	28% 2794-7224 (10018)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$3.29	+$0	18% 245-1134 (1379)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yes	$2.89	$2.89	-$0.42	39% 315-496 (811)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yes	$1.98	$1.98	-$0.29	24% 785-2554 (3339)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$1.44	-$0.21	39% 5764-9161 (14925)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.72	$0.04	-$1.68	21% 356-1339 (1695)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$188.83

PnL

+$187.19

Record

72%

13834-5358 (19192)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.47

Value

$54.36

PnL

-$6.28

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$35.23

PnL

+$33.28

Record

42%

837-1172 (2009)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.61

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$3.32

Record

37%

4033-6775 (10808)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$20.87

PnL

-$3.07

Record

30%

489-1160 (1649)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$17.77

PnL

-$2.61

Record

38%

7155-11768 (18923)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$1.06

Record

39%

2901-4499 (7400)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$2.1

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$1.49

Record

34%

3324-6350 (9674)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$0.44

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$1.06

Record

17%

1328-6547 (7875)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$4.37

Record

23%

1791-6025 (7816)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$3.83

Record

28%

2794-7224 (10018)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$0.42

Record

39%

315-496 (811)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.29

Record

24%

785-2554 (3339)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.21

Record

39%

5764-9161 (14925)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.68

Record

21%

356-1339 (1695)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.