Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $714 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$713.58
-$18.02
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
305h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.7¢ | $699.82 | $699.6 | -$0.2 | 68% 13194-6212 (19406) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $9.97 | $9.97 | -$0 | 31% 4467-9741 (14208) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $14.45 | $3.24 | -$11.21 | 26% 7307-21087 (28394) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $8.2 | $0.75 | -$6.06 | 77% 12697-3875 (16572) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.57 | $0.01 | -$0.55 | 17% 1328-6547 (7875) |
Invested
$699.82
Value
$699.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
68%
13194-6212 (19406)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
4467-9741 (14208)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$11.21
Record
26%
7307-21087 (28394)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$6.06
Record
77%
12697-3875 (16572)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.55
Record
17%
1328-6547 (7875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.