Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.5K
$512.75
40.4¢ → 67¢
+66% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
1167h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 38.2¢ | $275.54 | $506.42 | +$230.88 | 57% 800-613 (1413) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 40.9¢ | $280.84 | $419.86 | +$446.51 | 53% 1040-935 (1975) |
 archaicCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $336.34 | $241.23 | -$95.11 | 85% 1847-335 (2182) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yes | $213.36 | $213.36 | -$94.04 | 55% 426-349 (775) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 48.3¢ | $86.56 | $111.05 | +$24.49 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
paddaaInvested
$275.54
Value
$506.42
PnL
+$230.88
Record
57%
800-613 (1413)
Invested
$280.84
Value
$419.86
PnL
+$446.51
Record
53%
1040-935 (1975)
archaicCTRInvested
$336.34
Value
$241.23
PnL
-$95.11
Record
85%
1847-335 (2182)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$213.36
Value
$213.36
PnL
-$94.04
Record
55%
426-349 (775)
Invested
$86.56
Value
$111.05
PnL
+$24.49
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.