Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $108 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$108.13
-$162.78
3¢ → 0.4¢
-88% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
328h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $86.13 | $86 | -$0.13 | 56% 3737-2986 (6723) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $136.36 | $10.5 | -$125.86 | 77% 1421-420 (1841) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $4.28 | -$35.84 | 56% 839-648 (1487) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $6.33 | $4.2 | -$2.13 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.58 | $3.15 | +$1.18 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
Invested
$86.13
Value
$86
PnL
-$0.13
Record
56%
3737-2986 (6723)
Invested
$136.36
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$125.86
Record
77%
1421-420 (1841)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$35.84
Record
56%
839-648 (1487)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.33
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$2.13
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$1.58
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$1.18
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.