Will Ahmad Tibi be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $890 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$889.55
$1.93
99.7¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $313.84 | $314.63 | +$0.79 | 51% 4735-4557 (9292) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $307.52 | $308.22 | +$0.7 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.8¢ | $144.58 | $144.77 | +$0.19 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.86 | $49.98 | +$0.11 | 31% 2838-6235 (9073) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.99 | +$0.08 | 17% 78-376 (454) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.99 | +$0.03 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.97 | $13.99 | +$0.02 | 79% 449-119 (568) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.98 | $8 | +$0.01 | 38% 3334-5399 (8733) |
balthazarInvested
$313.84
Value
$314.63
PnL
+$0.79
Record
51%
4735-4557 (9292)
Invested
$307.52
Value
$308.22
PnL
+$0.7
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
Invested
$144.58
Value
$144.77
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
Invested
$49.86
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.11
Record
31%
2838-6235 (9073)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.08
Record
17%
78-376 (454)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
79%
449-119 (568)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
3334-5399 (8733)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.