Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $74 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$74.07

Combined PnL

-$57.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$70.05

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$2.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.02

Total Shares8,043

Combined PnL-$54.92

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$50.25	$49.4	-$0.85	77% 12698-3875 (16573)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.66	$20.65	-$1.47	17% 4496-22009 (26505)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.83	$2.72	-$36.63	56% 808-631 (1439)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.1	$0.7	-$10.87	17% 106-504 (610)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$7.62	$0.46	-$7.16	6% 14-233 (247)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.41	$0.15	-$0.26	56% 18822-14981 (33803)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$49.4

PnL

-$0.85

Record

77%

12698-3875 (16573)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$22.66

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$1.47

Record

17%

4496-22009 (26505)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.83

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$36.63

Record

56%

808-631 (1439)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$10.87

Record

17%

106-504 (610)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$7.16

Record

14-233 (247)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

18822-14981 (33803)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8990.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

9090.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.