Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AEK Athens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Jun 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$100.26
$-3.0K
1.6¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 50-PenceCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $1.6K | $41.36 | $-1.5K | 39% 158-246 (404) |
 Gucky-45CTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $731.7 | $30 | -$701.7 | 32% 651-1414 (2065) |
DG DG-NOCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $571.95 | $23.45 | -$548.5 | 44% 650-818 (1468) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $150 | $3.15 | -$146.85 | 19% 49-212 (261) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $58.47 | $1.23 | -$57.24 | 52% 1154-1067 (2221) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $14.54 | $0.6 | -$13.94 | 38% 495-815 (1310) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.26 | $0.26 | +$0.26 | 79% 10607-2754 (13361) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $9.51 | $0.21 | -$9.3 | 38% 2933-4687 (7620) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $0 | -$0.12 | 46% 6106-7046 (13152) |
50-PenceCTRInvested
$1,571.72
Value
$41.36
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
39%
158-246 (404)
Gucky-45CTRInvested
$731.7
Value
$30
PnL
-$701.7
Record
32%
651-1414 (2065)
Invested
$571.95
Value
$23.45
PnL
-$548.5
Record
44%
650-818 (1468)
Invested
$150
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$146.85
Record
19%
49-212 (261)
Invested
$58.47
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$57.24
Record
52%
1154-1067 (2221)
Invested
$14.54
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$13.94
Record
38%
495-815 (1310)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0.26
Record
79%
10607-2754 (13361)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$9.3
Record
38%
2933-4687 (7620)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.12
Record
46%
6106-7046 (13152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.