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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $166 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$166.27
-$0.76
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.9 | $74.51 | -$0.39 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $43.83 | $43.6 | -$0.22 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.99 | $25.85 | -$0.14 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $15.53 | $15.56 | +$0.02 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.78 | $6.75 | -$0.03 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
Invested
$74.9
Value
$74.51
PnL
-$0.39
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.83
Value
$43.6
PnL
-$0.22
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$25.99
Value
$25.85
PnL
-$0.14
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$15.53
Value
$15.56
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$0.03
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.