Will Aday Mara win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $560 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$559.85
-$0.84
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
221h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $239.28 | $238.92 | -$0.36 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $177.4 | $177.13 | -$0.27 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $59.73 | -$0.09 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $42.33 | $42.27 | -$0.06 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $41.87 | $41.81 | -$0.06 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
Invested
$239.28
Value
$238.92
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$177.4
Value
$177.13
PnL
-$0.27
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$59.73
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.33
Value
$42.27
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.87
Value
$41.81
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.