Will Adam Driver win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $450 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$449.59
-$0.16
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $179.32 | $179.23 | -$0.09 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $110.9 | $110.84 | -$0.06 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $62.13 | $62.13 | +$0 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $37.46 | $37.46 | +$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
Invested
$179.32
Value
$179.23
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$110.9
Value
$110.84
PnL
-$0.06
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$62.13
Value
$62.13
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.46
Value
$37.46
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.