Will Actor Y win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $299 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$298.55
$284.98
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $3.68 | $81.04 | +$77.36 | 53% 5981-5353 (11334) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.89 | $63.5 | +$60.61 | 39% 1060-1643 (2703) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.52 | $55.51 | +$52.98 | 28% 530-1383 (1913) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.41 | $31.1 | +$29.68 | 44% 1109-1422 (2531) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.36 | $30 | +$28.64 | 17% 74-360 (434) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.07 | $23.45 | +$22.39 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.58 | $12.85 | +$12.26 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.05 | $1.12 | +$1.06 | 7% 2-28 (30) |
Invested
$3.68
Value
$81.04
PnL
+$77.36
Record
53%
5981-5353 (11334)
Invested
$2.89
Value
$63.5
PnL
+$60.61
Record
39%
1060-1643 (2703)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$55.51
PnL
+$52.98
Record
28%
530-1383 (1913)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$31.1
PnL
+$29.68
Record
44%
1109-1422 (2531)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$30
PnL
+$28.64
Record
17%
74-360 (434)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$1.07
Value
$23.45
PnL
+$22.39
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$12.85
PnL
+$12.26
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$1.06
Record
7%
2-28 (30)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.