Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will ACT New Zealand win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $43 held · ends Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$43.38

Combined PnL

$9.22

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$38.15

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$1.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.23

Total Shares579

Combined PnL+$8.17

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 95.7¢	$114.76	$26.2	+$0.88	72% 13809-5348 (19157)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$11.78	$11.95	+$0.17	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$15.7	$2.87	-$12.83	73% 3098-1126 (4224)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$1.4	$1.4	+$0.18	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.54	$0.54	-$1.61	25% 462-1416 (1878)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$3.63	$0.3	+$22.44	26% 562-1641 (2203)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	+$0	19% 2872-12252 (15124)

Lucerys

Invested

$114.76

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$0.88

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.7

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$12.83

Record

73%

3098-1126 (4224)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$1.61

Record

25%

462-1416 (1878)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$22.44

Record

26%

562-1641 (2203)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3749.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

3849.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.