Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 20¢ · $138 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$137.99

Combined PnL

$57.78

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$95.56

Total Shares346

Combined PnL+$73.74

No3 traders

Total Value$42.43

Total Shares59

Combined PnL-$15.96

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$18.53	$85.91	+$67.38	48% 1964-2118 (4082)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$21.72	-$8.25	31% 4440-9727 (14167)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$14.48	-$5.5	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.29	$6.65	+$6.36	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$55.85	$6.23	-$2.21	38% 7126-11734 (18860)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yes	$1.55	$1.55	+$0	33% 6954-13982 (20936)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	47% 10328-11796 (22124)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.53

Value

$85.91

PnL

+$67.38

Record

48%

1964-2118 (4082)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$21.72

PnL

-$8.25

Record

31%

4440-9727 (14167)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$14.48

PnL

-$5.5

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$6.36

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

korda77<$100

Invested

$55.85

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$2.21

Record

38%

7126-11734 (18860)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

6954-13982 (20936)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10328-11796 (22124)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.1%

20.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$352.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

452.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.