Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AC Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.1¢ · $311 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$311.4
-$134.4
8.1¢ → 6.1¢
-24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
425h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $389.57 | $175.88 | -$213.69 | 60% 312-209 (521) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $19.53 | $107.57 | +$88.04 | 42% 1968-2772 (4740) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $17.03 | $10.95 | -$10.35 | 42% 1365-1922 (3287) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $39.01 | $9.67 | +$2.35 | 41% 1279-1825 (3104) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $9.12 | $7.33 | -$0.76 | 76% 11221-3466 (14687) |
Invested
$389.57
Value
$175.88
PnL
-$213.69
Record
60%
312-209 (521)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$19.53
Value
$107.57
PnL
+$88.04
Record
42%
1968-2772 (4740)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$17.03
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$10.35
Record
42%
1365-1922 (3287)
Invested
$39.01
Value
$9.67
PnL
+$2.35
Record
41%
1279-1825 (3104)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$7.33
PnL
-$0.76
Record
76%
11221-3466 (14687)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.