Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$119.57

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 97.8¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,446

Combined PnL+$90.37

Yes3 traders

Total Value$52.48

Total Shares2,233

Combined PnL-$209.95

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

1073h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE Bet1nthedark	Noavg 97.9¢	$767.23	$765.61	-$0.39	88% 153-21 (174)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 92.1¢	$228.32	$238.17	+$9.85	56% 18837-15002 (33839)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 79.2¢	$169.83	$205.41	+$39.1	77% 12734-3891 (16625)
twe2nty	Noavg 78.8¢	$163.88	$203.16	+$41.82	73% 169-63 (232)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$24.75	$40.54	+$15.79	47% 2083-2393 (4476)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$235.58	$11.75	-$223.83	50% 1200-1185 (2385)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$2.09	$0.19	-$1.9	51% 2600-2535 (5135)

Bet1nthedark

Invested

$767.23

Value

$765.61

PnL

-$0.39

Record

88%

153-21 (174)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$228.32

Value

$238.17

PnL

+$9.85

Record

56%

18837-15002 (33839)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$169.83

Value

$205.41

PnL

+$39.1

Record

77%

12734-3891 (16625)

twe2nty

Invested

$163.88

Value

$203.16

PnL

+$41.82

Record

73%

169-63 (232)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.75

Value

$40.54

PnL

+$15.79

Record

47%

2083-2393 (4476)

LiquidifierCTR

Yes

Invested

$235.58

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$223.83

Record

50%

1200-1185 (2385)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.9

Record

51%

2600-2535 (5135)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

1073h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.