Will a Senior or Graduate win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.5K
$370.1
77.2¢ → 93.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$335.39 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 Hyperlong | Noavg 75¢ | $149.92 | $187 | +$30 | 47% 324-369 (693) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $11.84 | $17.3 | +$4.72 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.