Will 9z Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$150.47
-$13.51
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
87h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.6¢ | $435.41 | $119.46 | -$0.06 | — |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $24.35 | $24.34 | -$0.01 | — |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.17 | $4.39 | -$8.79 | — |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $6.76 | $2.25 | -$4.51 | — |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0.13 | $0.02 | -$0.11 | — |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0.04 | $0.01 | -$0.04 | — |
Invested
$435.41
Value
$119.46
PnL
-$0.06
Record
—
Invested
$24.35
Value
$24.34
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
Invested
$13.17
Value
$4.39
PnL
-$8.79
Record
—
Invested
$6.76
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$4.51
Record
—
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.11
Record
—
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.