Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$5.49
-$715.24
13.1¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
4895h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackmeCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $645.63 | $3.87 | -$641.76 | 73% 11084-4092 (15176) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $3.45 | $1.2 | -$2.25 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $30 | $0.2 | -$33.96 | 53% 3176-2843 (6019) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $25 | $0.15 | -$24.85 | 36% 1887-3307 (5194) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $12.5 | $0.08 | -$12.42 | 25% 228-684 (912) |
Invested
$645.63
Value
$3.87
PnL
-$641.76
Record
73%
11084-4092 (15176)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$2.25
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$30
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$33.96
Record
53%
3176-2843 (6019)
Invested
$25
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$24.85
Record
36%
1887-3307 (5194)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$12.42
Record
25%
228-684 (912)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.