Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.6K
$160.88
89.8¢ → 87.9¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$163.56 | 53% 349-305 (654) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $22.19 | $19.84 | -$2.35 | 77% 11133-3396 (14529) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $12.68 | $16.09 | +$3.41 | 88% 1987-279 (2266) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $3.87 | $1.09 | -$3.74 | 42% 1675-2291 (3966) |
rabbit007Invested
$1,446.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$163.56
Record
53%
349-305 (654)
Invested
$22.19
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$2.35
Record
77%
11133-3396 (14529)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$12.68
Value
$16.09
PnL
+$3.41
Record
88%
1987-279 (2266)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$3.74
Record
42%
1675-2291 (3966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.