Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 95¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 1

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

Total Value

$63.4K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 95.1¢

+15% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$61.3K

Total Shares67,578

Combined PnL+$5.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares23,710

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scout	Yesavg 75.7¢	$17.3K	$21.2K	+$3.9K	91% 754-77 (831)
Car	Yesavg 80.2¢	$10.3K	$11.4K	+$1.1K	67% 4143-2005 (6148)
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 87.4¢	$10.1K	$10.2K	+$147.34	— 8-5 (13)
MisTKy	Yesavg 90.2¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$68.99	71% 558-231 (789)
paddaa	Yesavg 92.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$17.22	57% 825-632 (1457)
StudyPrediction	Yesavg 89.7¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$53.61	53% 4584-4001 (8585)
AR Arman2	Yesavg 83.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$115.5	58% 323-236 (559)
Lolakis	Yesavg 90.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$30.32	61% 655-414 (1069)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81	Yesavg 87.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.46	54% 287-246 (533)
cs2.quantCTR	Noavg 11.3¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$358.05	56% 84-67 (151)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 92.7¢	$864.17	$862.6	-$1.57	69% 2064-941 (3005)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR	Noavg 10.6¢	$975.42	$784.93	-$190.49	56% 166-130 (296)
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 73.3¢	$1.6K	$460.1	+$358.91	59% 981-676 (1657)
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186CTR	Noavg 20.4¢	$889.2	$200.87	-$455	55% 290-237 (527)
OraculumNobius<$100	Yesavg 89.1¢	$89.13	$88.68	-$0.45	90% 5476-611 (6087)
GM gm-gg-gnCTR	Noavg 39.7¢	$164.53	$46.9	-$117.63	— 7-2 (9)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$6.13	$0.89	+$1.07	78% 267-77 (344)

scout

Yes

Invested

$17,324.42

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

91%

754-77 (831)

Car

Yes

Invested

$10,279.22

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

67%

4143-2005 (6148)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$10,072.38

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$147.34

Record

—

8-5 (13)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$5,010.47

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$68.99

Record

71%

558-231 (789)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$17.22

Record

57%

825-632 (1457)

StudyPrediction

Yes

Invested

$2,514.84

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$53.61

Record

53%

4584-4001 (8585)

Arman2

Yes

Invested

$2,049.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$115.5

Record

58%

323-236 (559)

Lolakis

Yes

Invested

$2,103.53

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.32

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81

Yes

Invested

$1,206.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.46

Record

54%

287-246 (533)

cs2.quantCTR

Invested

$1,394.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$358.05

Record

56%

84-67 (151)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$864.17

Value

$862.6

PnL

-$1.57

Record

69%

2064-941 (3005)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR

Invested

$975.42

Value

$784.93

PnL

-$190.49

Record

56%

166-130 (296)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$1,560.19

Value

$460.1

PnL

+$358.91

Record

59%

981-676 (1657)

0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186CTR

Invested

$889.2

Value

$200.87

PnL

-$455

Record

55%

290-237 (527)

OraculumNobius<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.13

Value

$88.68

PnL

-$0.45

Record

90%

5476-611 (6087)

gm-gg-gnCTR

Invested

$164.53

Value

$46.9

PnL

-$117.63

Record

—

7-2 (9)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.13

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$1.07

Record

78%

267-77 (344)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.