Will 1win launch a token by November 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.7K
-$2.02
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $995 | $995 | +$0 | 67% 4143-2005 (6148) |
 OraculumNobius | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $662.87 | $660.98 | -$1.89 | 90% 5476-611 (6087) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $31.97 | $31.84 | -$0.13 | 98% 13075-209 (13284) |
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 54% 287-246 (533) |
CarInvested
$995
Value
$995
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
4143-2005 (6148)
OraculumNobiusInvested
$662.87
Value
$660.98
PnL
-$1.89
Record
90%
5476-611 (6087)
Invested
$31.97
Value
$31.84
PnL
-$0.13
Record
98%
13075-209 (13284)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
287-246 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.