Will White House post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 90¢ · $819 held · ends Nov 6

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$818.83

Combined PnL

-$27.97

Research grade

AvoidYes at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$806.51

Total Shares823

Combined PnL-$25.04

No3 traders

Total Value$12.31

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$2.93

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 83.9¢	$844.88	$806.51	-$25.04	17% 402-1971 (2373)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$14.62	$8.87	-$3.28	21% 2284-8696 (10980)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.8	$2	+$0.2	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.3	$1.45	+$0.14	17% 221-1066 (1287)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$844.88

Value

$806.51

PnL

-$25.04

Record

17%

402-1971 (2373)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$14.62

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$3.28

Record

21%

2284-8696 (10980)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.14

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.