Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.8K
$75.3
44.3¢ → 50.5¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Noavg 48.4¢ | $887.62 | $907.3 | +$19.68 | 60% 9276-6223 (15499) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $533.11 | $444.71 | -$88.4 | 59% 2526-1756 (4282) |
CL claudesports | Noavg 26¢ | $84.94 | $173.14 | +$88.2 | 35% 346-638 (984) |
LA lavendergooms | Noavg 40¢ | $102.41 | $127.22 | +$32.73 | 53% 2604-2342 (4946) |
RE retarb | Noavg 41.6¢ | $83.92 | $107.01 | +$23.09 | 48% 4185-4445 (8630) |
poshposhInvested
$887.62
Value
$907.3
PnL
+$19.68
Record
60%
9276-6223 (15499)
Invested
$533.11
Value
$444.71
PnL
-$88.4
Record
59%
2526-1756 (4282)
Invested
$84.94
Value
$173.14
PnL
+$88.2
Record
35%
346-638 (984)
Invested
$102.41
Value
$127.22
PnL
+$32.73
Record
53%
2604-2342 (4946)
Invested
$83.92
Value
$107.01
PnL
+$23.09
Record
48%
4185-4445 (8630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.