Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $635 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$635.45
$0.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 54.6¢ | $163.98 | $374.63 | +$210.65 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $62.04 | $269.99 | +$207.95 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.6¢ | $101.93 | $104.64 | +$2.7 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 54.4¢ | $214.46 | $206.76 | -$7.7 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.4¢ | $159.48 | $155.29 | -$4.19 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $54.99 | $51.48 | -$3.51 | |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $51.2 | $51.41 | +$0.21 | 55% 1754-1450 (3204) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | -$0 | 50% 1694-1661 (3355) |
Invested
$163.98
Value
$374.63
PnL
+$210.65
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
Both legs:
Invested
$214.46
Value
$206.76
PnL
-$7.7
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.2
Value
$51.41
PnL
+$0.21
Record
55%
1754-1450 (3204)
us391<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1694-1661 (3355)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.