Academia Puerto Cabello vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.3K
-$22.69
77.4¢ → 98.9¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 77.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$23.37 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 76¢ | $177.56 | $177.56 | -$0 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $6.75 | $6 | -$0.75 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $2.95 | $4.41 | +$1.46 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $0.35 | $0.32 | -$0.03 | 50% 11998-12149 (24147) |
RN1Invested
$1,153.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$23.37
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$177.56
Value
$177.56
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.75
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$1.46
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
11998-12149 (24147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.