Academia Puerto Cabello vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$2.6K
$515.16
68.3¢ → 86¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 68.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | +$491.97 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.4¢ | $1.09 | $21.05 | +$19.97 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $8.18 | $11.4 | +$3.22 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $5.1 | $5.1 | +$0 | 59% 29959-20686 (50645) |
RN1Invested
$2,086.2
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$491.97
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$21.05
PnL
+$19.97
Record
60%
9181-6134 (15315)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$3.22
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
29959-20686 (50645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.