Will Academia Puerto Cabello vs. Caracas FC end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $230 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$230.38
-$29.59
66.6¢ → 87¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 61¢ | $110.16 | $132.73 | +$22.57 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.9¢ | $118.31 | $66.6 | -$51.71 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $17.25 | $15.79 | +$0.3 | 50% 2447-2441 (4888) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $13.63 | $13.41 | -$0.22 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $2.38 | $1.86 | -$0.52 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
RN1Invested
$110.16
Value
$132.73
PnL
+$22.57
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$118.31
Value
$66.6
PnL
-$51.71
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Invested
$17.25
Value
$15.79
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
2447-2441 (4888)
Invested
$13.63
Value
$13.41
PnL
-$0.22
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.38
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$0.52
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.