Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 19¢ · $468 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$467.71
-$146.51
68.8¢ → 18.5¢
-73% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $418.88 | $299.02 | -$119.86 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $42.12 | $166.83 | +$124.72 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.6¢ | $376.76 | $132.19 | -$244.57 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 82¢ | $100.12 | $97.53 | -$2.59 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 63.2¢ | $195.69 | $52.62 | -$143.07 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $10.45 | $9.33 | -$1.11 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.88 | $4.68 | -$0.21 | 50% 11998-12149 (24147) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $4.05 | $4.53 | +$0.48 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
Invested
$418.88
Value
$299.02
PnL
-$119.86
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.12
Value
$97.53
PnL
-$2.59
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
RN1CTRInvested
$195.69
Value
$52.62
PnL
-$143.07
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$10.45
Value
$9.33
PnL
-$1.11
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
11998-12149 (24147)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$0.48
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.