Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$149.45
59.5¢ → 98.5¢
+65% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 61.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$203.7 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 49¢ | $152.96 | $152.96 | +$0 | 76% 3888-1239 (5127) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $78.02 | $113.05 | +$35.03 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $40.66 | $75.7 | +$35.03 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $37.36 | $37.36 | -$0 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $35.82 | $27.62 | -$8.2 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $62.33 | $19.84 | -$42.49 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $7.15 | $3.59 | -$3.56 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
Invested
$1,157.46
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$203.7
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Invested
$152.96
Value
$152.96
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
3888-1239 (5127)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$78.02
Value
$113.05
PnL
+$35.03
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$35.82
Value
$27.62
PnL
-$8.2
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
Invested
$62.33
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$42.49
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.15
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$3.56
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.