Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$89.08

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,901

Combined PnL+$3.83

No3 traders

Total Value$259.81

Total Shares5,536

Combined PnL+$85.24

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fleeth	Yes	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$31.66	51% 341-322 (663)
manekineko	Yesavg 97.8¢	$979.23	$958.41	-$27.83	84% 363-70 (433)
AllByMyseIfCTR	Noavg 2.3¢	$72.33	$155.56	+$83.24	65% 669-356 (1025)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 3.5¢	$85.95	$99.95	+$18.86	61% 20834-13247 (34081)
VI VitaaalyaCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$22	$4.3	-$16.85	70% 240-102 (342)

fleeth

Yes

Invested

$1,818.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$31.66

Record

51%

341-322 (663)

manekineko

Yes

Invested

$979.23

Value

$958.41

PnL

-$27.83

Record

84%

363-70 (433)

AllByMyseIfCTR

Invested

$72.33

Value

$155.56

PnL

+$83.24

Record

65%

669-356 (1025)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$85.95

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$18.86

Record

61%

20834-13247 (34081)

VitaaalyaCTR<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$16.85

Record

70%

240-102 (342)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.