Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$4.3K
-$50.61
96.2¢ → 97¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
3928h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Yesavg 95.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.3K | +$49.54 | 52% 31215-29135 (60350) |
 manekineko | Yesavg 97.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$6.98 | 83% 372-74 (446) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 97.6¢ | $244.38 | $245 | +$0.62 | 40% 6623-9994 (16617) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Yesavg 95.8¢ | $210.76 | $215.9 | +$4.09 | 56% 18843-15011 (33854) |
PH phdcapital | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $119.68 | $124.64 | +$3.82 | 94% 265-17 (282) |
 twe2ntyCTR | Noavg 4.2¢ | $153.68 | $109.26 | -$44.43 | 73% 170-64 (234) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Noavg 5.4¢ | $100.99 | $44.63 | -$56.36 | 49% 6360-6522 (12882) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $0.1 | -$0.91 | 73% 3106-1128 (4234) |
balthazarInvested
$2,610.6
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$49.54
Record
52%
31215-29135 (60350)
manekinekoInvested
$1,389.16
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.98
Record
83%
372-74 (446)
HaradwaithInvested
$244.38
Value
$245
PnL
+$0.62
Record
40%
6623-9994 (16617)
Invested
$210.76
Value
$215.9
PnL
+$4.09
Record
56%
18843-15011 (33854)
Invested
$119.68
Value
$124.64
PnL
+$3.82
Record
94%
265-17 (282)
twe2ntyCTRInvested
$153.68
Value
$109.26
PnL
-$44.43
Record
73%
170-64 (234)
Invested
$100.99
Value
$44.63
PnL
-$56.36
Record
49%
6360-6522 (12882)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.91
Record
73%
3106-1128 (4234)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.