Valorant: World Sports Invictus Gaming vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold World Sports Invictus Gaming (71%) · World Sports Invictus Gaming at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
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Neutral
World Sports Invictus Gaming
7
World Sports Invictus Gaming 71%
$2.0K
$58.25
34.4¢ → 100¢
+190% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralWorld Sports Invictus Gaming at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeast | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 32.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$60.47 | 39% 165-258 (423) |
LO looppau | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 99.9¢ | $168.83 | $168.16 | -$0.68 | 99% 10658-59 (10717) |
GT gt7238<$100 | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 36¢ | $84.93 | $79.05 | -$5.88 | 45% 599-730 (1329) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 28.8¢ | $37.08 | $42.51 | +$5.43 | 49% 18818-19217 (38035) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | TEC Esportsavg 53¢ | $10 | $7.83 | -$2.17 | 67% 23202-11602 (34804) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | TEC Esportsavg 63.2¢ | $3.13 | $3.29 | +$0.16 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 20¢ | $1.34 | $2.24 | +$0.9 | 59% 30217-20924 (51141) |
Invested
$1,619.78
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$60.47
Record
39%
165-258 (423)
Invested
$168.83
Value
$168.16
PnL
-$0.68
Record
99%
10658-59 (10717)
Invested
$84.93
Value
$79.05
PnL
-$5.88
Record
45%
599-730 (1329)
Invested
$37.08
Value
$42.51
PnL
+$5.43
Record
49%
18818-19217 (38035)
Invested
$10
Value
$7.83
PnL
-$2.17
Record
67%
23202-11602 (34804)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.29
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.9
Record
59%
30217-20924 (51141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
gregbeast
World Sports Invictus Gaming — $1.7K
looppau
World Sports Invictus Gaming — $168.16
gt7238
World Sports Invictus Gaming — $79.05
omnibus-076daa
World Sports Invictus Gaming — $42.51
pauleta23
CTRTEC Esports — $7.83
HRTrading
CTRTEC Esports — $3.29
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
World Sports Invictus Gaming — $2.24