Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold World Sports Invictus Gaming, while the market favors Unsettled Resentment (69%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Valorant: Unsettled Resentment vs World Sports Invictus Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold World Sports Invictus Gaming (40%) · World Sports Invictus Gaming at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
World Sports Invictus Gaming
5
World Sports Invictus Gaming 40%
$1.8K
-$309.92
42.3¢ → 31¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralWorld Sports Invictus Gaming at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Unsettled Resentment 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeastCTR | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 42.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$354.03 | 39% 167-260 (427) |
GT gt7238 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 56.1¢ | $214.2 | $246.24 | +$32.03 | 45% 613-753 (1366) |
OD Oddstorm | Unsettled Resentmentavg 57¢ | $100.47 | $113.72 | +$13.26 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | World Sports Invictus Gamingavg 27.9¢ | $40.44 | $37.01 | -$3.43 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 57.2¢ | $20.65 | $17.9 | +$2.25 | 48% 2376-2612 (4988) |
Invested
$1,713.9
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$354.03
Record
39%
167-260 (427)
Invested
$214.2
Value
$246.24
PnL
+$32.03
Record
45%
613-753 (1366)
Invested
$100.47
Value
$113.72
PnL
+$13.26
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
Invested
$40.44
Value
$37.01
PnL
-$3.43
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$17.9
PnL
+$2.25
Record
48%
2376-2612 (4988)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.