Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Victory No Limits, while the market favors Unsettled Resentment (62%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Valorant: Unsettled Resentment vs Victory No Limits (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Victory No Limits (20%) · Victory No Limits at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Victory No Limits
5
Victory No Limits 20%
$1.6K
$102.08
Research grade
NeutralVictory No Limits at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Unsettled Resentment 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeastCTR | Victory No Limitsavg 31.2¢ | $936.42 | $1.1K | +$158.49 | 39% 162-253 (415) |
 Basquetipster | Unsettled Resentmentavg 71¢ | $300 | $268.31 | -$31.69 | 69% 1651-759 (2410) |
 VeryLucky888 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 69.7¢ | $283.4 | $258.22 | -$25.18 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $3.93 | -$0.09 | 59% 29915-20638 (50553) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 67¢ | $2.37 | $2.93 | +$0.56 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$936.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$158.49
Record
39%
162-253 (415)
BasquetipsterInvested
$300
Value
$268.31
PnL
-$31.69
Record
69%
1651-759 (2410)
VeryLucky888Invested
$283.4
Value
$258.22
PnL
-$25.18
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.09
Record
59%
29915-20638 (50553)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.56
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.