Valorant: Unsettled Resentment vs Nova Esports (BO5) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nova Esports (80%) · Nova Esports at 96¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Nova Esports
5
Nova Esports 80%
$127.33
-$54.72
Research grade
NeutralNova Esports at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Nova Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Nova Esportsavg 78¢ | $54.13 | $56.91 | +$2.78 | 65% 1753-960 (2713) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Unsettled Resentmentavg 14.1¢ | $88.96 | $28.32 | -$60.64 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Nova Esportsavg 76¢ | $21.54 | $23.24 | +$0.99 | 68% 1673-770 (2443) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nova Esportsavg 77¢ | $10.35 | $12.3 | +$1.95 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Nova Esportsavg 77¢ | $6.16 | $6.56 | +$0.2 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
Invested
$54.13
Value
$56.91
PnL
+$2.78
Record
65%
1753-960 (2713)
Invested
$88.96
Value
$28.32
PnL
-$60.64
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$21.54
Value
$23.24
PnL
+$0.99
Record
68%
1673-770 (2443)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.16
Value
$6.56
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.