Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs KRÜ Blaze (BO5) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Shopify Rebellion Gold (60%) · Shopify Rebellion Gold at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Shopify Rebellion Gold
5
Shopify Rebellion Gold 60%
$3.8K
$56.84
74.7¢ → 71¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralShopify Rebellion Gold at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeastCTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 23.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$58.95 | 39% 167-262 (429) |
CA calculate10 | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 74.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$3.37 | 53% 1233-1079 (2312) |
GT gt7238 | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 76¢ | $496.06 | $496.06 | -$0 | 45% 616-754 (1370) |
 esportsbetter1CTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 24¢ | $211.89 | $211.89 | +$0 | 47% 168-186 (354) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100 | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 74¢ | $34.78 | $36.03 | +$1.26 | 54% 2417-2096 (4513) |
Invested
$1,621.14
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$58.95
Record
39%
167-262 (429)
Invested
$1,358.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$3.37
Record
53%
1233-1079 (2312)
Invested
$496.06
Value
$496.06
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
616-754 (1370)
esportsbetter1CTRInvested
$211.89
Value
$211.89
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
168-186 (354)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100Invested
$34.78
Value
$36.03
PnL
+$1.26
Record
54%
2417-2096 (4513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.