Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold KRÜ Blaze, while the market favors Shopify Rebellion Gold (97%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold KRÜ Blaze (80%) · KRÜ Blaze at 2.5¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
KRÜ Blaze
5
KRÜ Blaze 80%
$2.9K
-$482.56
25.3¢ → 2.5¢
-90% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKRÜ Blaze at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Shopify Rebellion Gold 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on KRÜ Blaze. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KateBollingerCTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 25¢ | $10.1K | $2.0K | -$553.53 | 69% 1723-781 (2504) |
GR gregbeastCTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 26.5¢ | $793.59 | $869.89 | +$76.3 | 39% 163-254 (417) |
DA dabossrealman<$100 | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 70.5¢ | $72 | $72 | +$0 | 61% 2469-1598 (4067) |
CA calculate10CTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 29¢ | $12.21 | $12.42 | -$4.21 | 53% 1214-1069 (2283) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 22.2¢ | $1.57 | $0.46 | -$1.11 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$10,064.26
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$553.53
Record
69%
1723-781 (2504)
Invested
$793.59
Value
$869.89
PnL
+$76.3
Record
39%
163-254 (417)
Invested
$72
Value
$72
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
2469-1598 (4067)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$12.42
PnL
-$4.21
Record
53%
1214-1069 (2283)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.57
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$1.11
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.