Valorant: Nova Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Any Questions Gaming (50%) · Any Questions Gaming at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Nova Esports49¢Any Questions Gaming51¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Any Questions Gaming

Consensus Traders

Any Questions Gaming 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$756.75

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 51¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAny Questions Gaming at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Any Questions Gaming

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nova Esports49%

Any Questions Gaming51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Any Questions Gaming3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,874

Combined PnL+$761.12

Nova Esports3 traders

Total Value$116.55

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$4.38

Any Questions Gaming — 50%Nova Esports — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Any Questions Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAny Questions Gaming 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Any Questions Gaming 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR gregbeast	Any Questions Gamingavg 39.7¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$751.26	39% 167-260 (427)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Nova Esportsavg 61¢	$71.59	$73.94	+$2.35	38% 417-667 (1084)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Any Questions Gamingavg 34.7¢	$27.57	$36.52	+$8.94	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Nova Esportsavg 59¢	$30.08	$23.71	-$6.37	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nova Esportsavg 64.2¢	$19.25	$18.9	-$0.35	48% 2389-2622 (5011)
poshposh<$100	Any Questions Gamingavg 33¢	$1.48	$2.4	+$0.92	59% 10160-7156 (17316)

gregbeast

Any Questions Gaming

Invested

$2,582.43

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$751.26

Record

39%

167-260 (427)

OddstormCTR<$100

Nova Esports

Invested

$71.59

Value

$73.94

PnL

+$2.35

Record

38%

417-667 (1084)

topdogbigboi<$100

Any Questions Gaming

Invested

$27.57

Value

$36.52

PnL

+$8.94

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Nova Esports

Invested

$30.08

Value

$23.71

PnL

-$6.37

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nova Esports

Invested

$19.25

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

poshposh<$100

Any Questions Gaming

Invested

$1.48

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.92

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Research grade

NeutralAny Questions Gaming at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Any Questions Gaming

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Any Questions Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAny Questions Gaming 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Any Questions Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.