Valorant: MIBR GC vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MIBR GC (50%) · MIBR GC at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

MIBR GC>99¢SK Nebula<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MIBR GC

Consensus Traders

MIBR GC 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$366.87

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMIBR GC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR GC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MIBR GC100%

SK Nebula0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SK Nebula3 traders

Total Value$751.76

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL-$33.77

MIBR GC3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL-$333.09

SK Nebula — 50%MIBR GC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR gregbeastCTR	SK Nebulaavg 39¢	$2.0K	$750	-$30	39% 164-257 (421)
CA calculate10	MIBR GCavg 94.6¢	$1.0K	$629.26	-$388.11	53% 1215-1071 (2286)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	MIBR GCavg 70.1¢	$554.58	$607.69	+$53.11	53% 2205-1970 (4175)
PI PIPIZIN<$100	MIBR GCavg 57¢	$19.75	$21.65	+$1.91	51% 398-376 (774)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	SK Nebulaavg 39¢	$3.9	$1.4	-$2.5	47% 2056-2353 (4409)
poshposhCTR<$100	SK Nebulaavg 34¢	$1.63	$0.36	-$1.27	60% 9388-6379 (15767)

gregbeastCTR

SK Nebula

Invested

$2,000

Value

$750

PnL

-$30

Record

39%

164-257 (421)

calculate10

MIBR GC

Invested

$1,017.36

Value

$629.26

PnL

-$388.11

Record

53%

1215-1071 (2286)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

MIBR GC

Invested

$554.58

Value

$607.69

PnL

+$53.11

Record

53%

2205-1970 (4175)

PIPIZIN<$100

MIBR GC

Invested

$19.75

Value

$21.65

PnL

+$1.91

Record

51%

398-376 (774)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

SK Nebula

Invested

$3.9

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$2.5

Record

47%

2056-2353 (4409)

poshposhCTR<$100

SK Nebula

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.27

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

Research grade

NeutralMIBR GC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR GC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MIBR GC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.