Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Gentle Mates GC, while the market favors MIBR GC (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Valorant: MIBR GC vs Gentle Mates GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gentle Mates GC (67%) · Gentle Mates GC at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Gentle Mates GC
6
Gentle Mates GC 67%
$4.0K
-$93.13
48.6¢ → 47.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGentle Mates GC at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR GC 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Gentle Mates GC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeastCTR | Gentle Mates GCavg 49¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$90 | 39% 162-253 (415) |
 teardropsaidmyname | MIBR GCavg 53.6¢ | $447.41 | $459.24 | +$11.83 | 52% 409-384 (793) |
 PROBABILITYTRADER | MIBR GCavg 55¢ | $309.78 | $309.78 | -$14.08 | 42% 1067-1449 (2516) |
 poshposhCTR | Gentle Mates GCavg 45¢ | $202.5 | $202.5 | +$0 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Gentle Mates GCavg 46.1¢ | $143.81 | $143.43 | -$0.38 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100 | Gentle Mates GCavg 49¢ | $49 | $45 | -$0.5 | 44% 35-45 (80) |
Invested
$2,940
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$90
Record
39%
162-253 (415)
teardropsaidmynameInvested
$447.41
Value
$459.24
PnL
+$11.83
Record
52%
409-384 (793)
PROBABILITYTRADERInvested
$309.78
Value
$309.78
PnL
-$14.08
Record
42%
1067-1449 (2516)
poshposhCTRInvested
$202.5
Value
$202.5
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9092-6016 (15108)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$143.81
Value
$143.43
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$49
Value
$45
PnL
-$0.5
Record
44%
35-45 (80)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.