Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Shopify Rebellion Gold (50%) · Shopify Rebellion Gold at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
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Neutral
Shopify Rebellion Gold
4
Shopify Rebellion Gold 50%
$2.7K
-$14.63
55.6¢ → 55¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralShopify Rebellion Gold at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeastCTR | Gentle Mates GCavg 43.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$9.42 | 39% 166-258 (424) |
 StudyPrediction | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$20 | 53% 4574-3989 (8563) |
 esportsbetter1 | Shopify Rebellion Goldavg 54.1¢ | $285.07 | $289.71 | +$12.54 | 48% 168-183 (351) |
GT gt7238CTR | Gentle Mates GCavg 43¢ | $114.81 | $117.06 | +$2.25 | 45% 607-746 (1353) |
Invested
$1,207.82
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$9.42
Record
39%
166-258 (424)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,119.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
4574-3989 (8563)
esportsbetter1Invested
$285.07
Value
$289.71
PnL
+$12.54
Record
48%
168-183 (351)
Invested
$114.81
Value
$117.06
PnL
+$2.25
Record
45%
607-746 (1353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.