Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold KRÜ Blaze, while the market favors Gentle Mates GC (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold KRÜ Blaze (50%) · KRÜ Blaze at 0.1¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2

Gentle Mates GC>99¢KRÜ Blaze<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

KRÜ Blaze

Consensus Traders

KRÜ Blaze 50%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

38.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKRÜ Blaze at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

KRÜ Blaze

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Gentle Mates GC 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gentle Mates GC100%

KRÜ Blaze0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KRÜ Blaze4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares14,651

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Gentle Mates GC4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,751

Combined PnL+$19.4

KRÜ Blaze — 50%Gentle Mates GC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RNGUziCTR	KRÜ Blazeavg 40¢	$4.9K	$5.9K	+$1.1K	51% 227-222 (449)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Gentle Mates GCavg 69.4¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$101.87	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
CA calculate10	Gentle Mates GCavg 86.5¢	$864.03	$943.28	+$79.25	53% 1233-1082 (2315)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	KRÜ Blazeavg 40¢	$372.4	$456.19	+$83.79	46% 909-1076 (1985)
GT gt7238CTR	KRÜ Blazeavg 39¢	$292.46	$202.47	-$89.99	45% 626-764 (1390)
0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062<$100	Gentle Mates GCavg 41.4¢	$42	$74.15	+$32.15	34% 128-248 (376)
PI PIPIZINCTR<$100	KRÜ Blazeavg 9¢	$75	$66.67	-$8.33	51% 428-405 (833)
DA dabossrealman<$100	Gentle Mates GCavg 55.7¢	$55.25	$38.31	+$9.88	61% 2592-1637 (4229)

RNGUziCTR

KRÜ Blaze

Invested

$4,854.79

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

227-222 (449)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Gentle Mates GC

Invested

$2,712.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$101.87

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

calculate10

Gentle Mates GC

Invested

$864.03

Value

$943.28

PnL

+$79.25

Record

53%

1233-1082 (2315)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

KRÜ Blaze

Invested

$372.4

Value

$456.19

PnL

+$83.79

Record

46%

909-1076 (1985)

gt7238CTR

KRÜ Blaze

Invested

$292.46

Value

$202.47

PnL

-$89.99

Record

45%

626-764 (1390)

0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062<$100

Gentle Mates GC

Invested

$42

Value

$74.15

PnL

+$32.15

Record

34%

128-248 (376)

PIPIZINCTR<$100

KRÜ Blaze

Invested

$75

Value

$66.67

PnL

-$8.33

Record

51%

428-405 (833)

dabossrealman<$100

Gentle Mates GC

Invested

$55.25

Value

$38.31

PnL

+$9.88

Record

61%

2592-1637 (4229)

Research grade

AvoidKRÜ Blaze at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

KRÜ Blaze

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Gentle Mates GC 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that KRÜ Blaze wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.