Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs MIBR GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MIBR GC (17%) · MIBR GC at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
MIBR GC
6
MIBR GC 17%
$7.0K
$3.18
Research grade
NeutralMIBR GC at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on MIBR GC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeast | MIBR GCavg 63¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$72.26 | 39% 166-259 (425) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 37¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$60 | 53% 4576-3990 (8566) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 37.1¢ | $246.65 | $239.22 | -$7.42 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 36.6¢ | $72.9 | $71.66 | -$1.24 | 59% 9948-6921 (16869) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $3.6 | -$0.25 | 47% 2272-2555 (4827) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 38.6¢ | $2.93 | $2.77 | -$0.16 | 38% 378-620 (998) |
Invested
$4,407.71
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$72.26
Record
39%
166-259 (425)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$2,220
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$60
Record
53%
4576-3990 (8566)
Invested
$246.65
Value
$239.22
PnL
-$7.42
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$72.9
Value
$71.66
PnL
-$1.24
Record
59%
9948-6921 (16869)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.25
Record
47%
2272-2555 (4827)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$2.77
PnL
-$0.16
Record
38%
378-620 (998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.