Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Unsettled Resentment (67%) · Unsettled Resentment at 59¢ · $907 held · ends Oct 29

KeepBest Gaming42¢Unsettled Resentment58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Unsettled Resentment

Consensus Traders

Unsettled Resentment 67%

Total Value

$906.54

Combined PnL

$67.98

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 58.5¢

+45% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnsettled Resentment at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Unsettled Resentment

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

KeepBest Gaming42%

Unsettled Resentment59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Unsettled Resentment4 traders

Total Value$660.13

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL+$119.81

KeepBest Gaming2 traders

Total Value$246.41

Total Shares483

Combined PnL-$51.83

Unsettled Resentment — 67%KeepBest Gaming — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Unsettled Resentmentavg 39¢	$265.75	$337.3	+$71.55	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
LU LuckyLoo	Unsettled Resentmentavg 38¢	$206.97	$269.6	+$62.63	49% 12392-12709 (25101)
EF 0xefde...6505CTR	KeepBest Gamingavg 61.4¢	$293.59	$241.41	-$52.18	38% 365-591 (956)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100	Unsettled Resentmentavg 64¢	$57.6	$44.55	-$13.05	46% 899-1068 (1967)
PA pauleta23<$100	Unsettled Resentmentavg 53¢	$10	$8.68	-$1.32	67% 23201-11598 (34799)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	KeepBest Gamingavg 60.8¢	$41.25	$5	+$0.35	47% 2160-2464 (4624)

poshposh

Unsettled Resentment

Invested

$265.75

Value

$337.3

PnL

+$71.55

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

LuckyLoo

Unsettled Resentment

Invested

$206.97

Value

$269.6

PnL

+$62.63

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

0xefde...6505CTR

KeepBest Gaming

Invested

$293.59

Value

$241.41

PnL

-$52.18

Record

38%

365-591 (956)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100

Unsettled Resentment

Invested

$57.6

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$13.05

Record

46%

899-1068 (1967)

pauleta23<$100

Unsettled Resentment

Invested

$10

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$1.32

Record

67%

23201-11598 (34799)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

KeepBest Gaming

Invested

$41.25

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

2160-2464 (4624)

Research grade

NeutralUnsettled Resentment at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Unsettled Resentment

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Unsettled Resentment wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.