Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FunPlus Phoenix (17%) · FunPlus Phoenix at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
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Neutral
FunPlus Phoenix
6
FunPlus Phoenix 17%
$3.4K
$161.59
Research grade
NeutralFunPlus Phoenix at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeast | FunPlus Phoenixavg 61.3¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$133.81 | 39% 166-258 (424) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Any Questions Gamingavg 32.9¢ | $181.14 | $214.53 | +$33.39 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100 | Any Questions Gamingavg 41.2¢ | $40.36 | $38.22 | -$2.14 | 51% 726-694 (1420) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Any Questions Gamingavg 42.4¢ | $40.36 | $37.12 | -$3.24 | 67% 23266-11671 (34937) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Any Questions Gamingavg 39.9¢ | $9.3 | $9.22 | -$0.28 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Any Questions Gamingavg 38¢ | $2.2 | $2.26 | +$0.06 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
Invested
$3,066.27
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$133.81
Record
39%
166-258 (424)
Invested
$181.14
Value
$214.53
PnL
+$33.39
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
Invested
$40.36
Value
$38.22
PnL
-$2.14
Record
51%
726-694 (1420)
Invested
$40.36
Value
$37.12
PnL
-$3.24
Record
67%
23266-11671 (34937)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$0.28
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.26
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.