Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Xorazm Fk Urganch vs. Pakhtakor: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 22¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.0K
$234.06
51.8¢ → 21.5¢
-58% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 51.8¢ | $893.63 | $889.27 | -$4.35 | 51% 1671-1621 (3292) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 52.5¢ | $592.56 | $829.63 | +$237.07 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 49.1¢ | $183.05 | $180.72 | -$2.33 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $69.99 | $69.34 | -$0.65 | 58% 5822-4279 (10101) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $24.81 | $29.13 | +$4.32 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
us391CTRInvested
$893.63
Value
$889.27
PnL
-$4.35
Record
51%
1671-1621 (3292)
Invested
$592.56
Value
$829.63
PnL
+$237.07
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
VeryLucky888Invested
$183.05
Value
$180.72
PnL
-$2.33
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$69.99
Value
$69.34
PnL
-$0.65
Record
58%
5822-4279 (10101)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.81
Value
$29.13
PnL
+$4.32
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.