Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Pakhtakor win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 5.0¢ · $719 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$718.69
$266.41
42.2¢ → 5¢
-88% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 41.1¢ | $298.32 | $533.24 | +$234.92 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 41¢ | $82 | $110 | +$28 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $32.47 | $31.1 | -$1.37 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.8¢ | $21.13 | $24.47 | +$3.35 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $7.98 | $8.18 | +$0.2 | 51% 5974-5666 (11640) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $5.45 | $6.9 | +$1.45 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $5.26 | $4.79 | -$0.13 | 93% 2988-241 (3229) |
Invested
$298.32
Value
$533.24
PnL
+$234.92
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$82
Value
$110
PnL
+$28
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$32.47
Value
$31.1
PnL
-$1.37
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$21.13
Value
$24.47
PnL
+$3.35
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$8.18
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
5974-5666 (11640)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$1.45
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.13
Record
93%
2988-241 (3229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.